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I admit. When I asked you "Are we witnessing convergence?" I was not being fair. The question was too vague, almost meaningless. But I did it intentionally, because there's one thing that has been bothering me for a long time. That is, when somebody invents a grand new term such as "digital convergence" or "Web 2.0" or "4G" or "long tail" or "wisdom of crowds", too many people seem to take it at the face value, and lose their ability to simply observe what is happening out there.
So, I wanted to understand better the so-called "convergence". Is it really happening? If it is, in what ways?
Here are my own, incomplete thoughts.
Merriam-Webster dictionary defines: (abridged)
convergence
1 : the act of converging and especially moving toward union or uniformity
2 : the state or property of being convergent
3 : independent development of similar characters
4 : the merging of distinct technologies, industries, or devices into a unified whole
I think the #4 is the best interpretation here.
Let's examine point by point, are we witnessing convergence:
a) Convergence of distinct technologies into a unified whole
Well, sort of. Yes, we keep integrating new technologies into mobile devices. But are these technologies merging into a unified whole? At the device and software platform level, it looks really promising, but at mobile market level, I doubt it. Some level of fragmentation between different "technology camps" is likely to continue in the mobile world. Of course, I proudly believe that we at Nokia/S60 are the front-runners and the strongest contenders in this race :-)
b) Convergence of distinct industries into a unified whole
Well, sort of. A number of traditionally separate industries (personal computing, media, mobile, consumer electronics, …) are clashing, facilitated by the Internet. But the process is not smooth, and everybody is a little confused. I'll quote Michael Mace again:
What's actually happening is more like they way they make steel: coal, lime, iron ore, and oxygen get fed into a blast furnace and utterly consumed by unearthly fire
c) Convergence of distinct devices into a unified whole
Well, sort of. During the last 5 years I've been working for Nokia, I have seen endless powerpoint shows about ultimate convergence devices, designed to rule the world. But let's look what's really happening:
Who provides the ultimate home entertainment device? Microsoft says that they do. Sony says that they do. Apple says that they do. But then comes along a Nintendo Wii, and everybody loves it.
Who provides the ultimate mobile device? We in Nokia say that we do. All the other phone vendors say that they do. Microsoft says that they do. But then comes along an Apple iPod, and everybody loves it. (side note: remember that it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings)
Ok, I believe that convergent devices will gain market share everywhere. But if somebody tries to tell you that there will be a single device that will rule the world from here and now to eternity, believe it at your peril.
This is how I see the world, my friend. Call it convergence, if you will, but count me out.
I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Comments
It's a question that is not enough discussed, Tommi. I'm with you on this. Different people have different tastes and different ways of running their lives. No single device will do it for everyone. As the W3C teaches, let's make sure the Web is ubiquitous. That means that, whichever of our devices we're using, we should find the experience completely satisfactory in terms of that device's capabilities.
Posted by: Barry WelfordI believe that we should look at the PC - Laptop industry to understand the processes in the smart phone arena.
"Laptops" have a screen, a keyboard, many sizes, and a few shapes, e.g.: traditional laptop shape, tablet, "changelings", etc...
They have sound card some has camera, they play music, run programs for all kinds of purposes...
What do we want from a smart phone with S60? What do we want to take on the road in a usefull formfactor in our pocket? USEFULL is the keyword...
Well I think the more the better.
In my opinion convergence means that actually usefull stuff is becoming part of the package and stays there for generations to come.
I do belive that there will be packages which will become the winners and will come very close to the "fit all needs" description.
the best example of such packages:
E70:
1. Small original form factor with full keyboard.
2. Excellent camera for "fun" and daily business pictures and videos. (not for professional photography)
3. Laptop like capabilities in many arenas.E.g.: Browsing like from PC, Skype through Fring, word processing and large file management (at least readability) through X-plore
Needs of users are different but it is NO excuse to criple the capabilities of devices, but instead an oportunity to lure users to new arenas.
Marketing gurus might be telling laud and clear, everyone needs different so make many different devices. That is not quite true any more in the smart phone arena. There is something in that, but it is acctually quite a bad strategy to divide resources too much instead of focusing in key high quality "do all well" products.
This issue is clearly about strategy. A ballance between good "converged" multi-purpose stuff and many targeted (and partly intentionally cripled) devices.
My money in on the intelligently converged and usefull stuf... That is why I bought an E70... ;-) Good job Nokia!
Posted by: Aron | March 29, 2007 12:42 PM